Tangled Webs

Defenders of gun rights were rightly unstinting in their criticism of Michael Bellesiles, the former Emory professor who was found to have fabricated evidence for his book, Arming America. Unfortunately, a time may also arrive when they are obligated by their high standards of academic honesty to censure one of their own. A controversy that has festered on academic email discussion lists for some time may finally be coming to a head.

Dr. John Lott, Jr., author of More Guns, Less Crime – a groundbreaking study of the relationship between concealed-carry laws and crime rates – has been accused in some detail of fabricating a survey in order to support his oft made claim that merely brandishing, rather than firing, a firearm will scare off an attacker 98% of the time.

Dr. Lott made this claim in the first edition of More Guns, Less Crime, published in 1998, citing only “national surveys.” He wrote at page 3, “If national surveys are correct, 98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack.” According to critic Tim Lambert, Dr. Lott has made reference to the 98% statistic at least 48 different times.

During this same period, other commentators were also citing a 98% figure. They were apparently attempting to cite a study on defensive gun use published by Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck. However, they were forgetting that the 98% figure cited by Kleck included defensive gun uses involving warning shots and missed shots at an attacker as well as mere brandishing cases.

When confronted with a critique of the 98% figure, individuals including C.D. Tavares have explained their misinterpretation of Kleck’s work and apologized. Dr. Lott, though, began attributing the 98% figure to a national survey he now says he personally conducted in the year 1997. In the second edition of More Guns, Less Crime, he offers the following alteration on page 3: “If a national survey that I conducted is correct, 98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack.” (emphasis added)

Dr. Lott’s accusers suggest that he was unwilling to admit that he had misinterpreted Kleck’s study, opting instead to credit a never-before-mentioned national survey of his own for the 98% figure. Wrong as it would have been, one can certainly imagine an author of a 321-page book convincing himself that a small sleight of hand on page 3 would never be questioned. If the naysayers are correct, though, Dr. Lott significantly worsened matters for himself in 2000, when he responded in The Criminologist to criticism from U.C. Santa Barbara’s Otis Duncan with a detailed description of the survey Lott supposedly conducted in 1997, and its findings. Dr. Lott apparently discussed the details of the survey over the telephone with Duncan as well.

Having reviewed credible-sounding critiques of Dr. Lott’s description of his survey by Lambert and Duncan, Northwestern University Professor James Lindgren undertook to investigate whether the survey actually took place. It is Lindgren’s report on his efforts, dated December 24, 2002, that is most concerning.

Dr. Lott claims that his telephone survey was conducted over three months in 1997, and garnered responses from “2,424 people from across the United States.” Because many called parties fail to answer calls or refuse to respond to survey questions, it is certain that thousands more calls would have been made in order to generate 2,424 responses.

But Lindgren reports that Dr. Lott had no funding for this survey, and says he covered the expenses out of his own pocket. Dr. Lott claims to have used student volunteers to help him place thousands of phone calls, but lacks any records listing student participants, and cannot remember the name of even a single volunteer. Dr. Lott says he had the students make these phone calls on their own home telephone lines, reimbursing their long distance charges from his personal account, but that he cannot prove this because he discards his cancelled checks after three years. Dr. Lott apparently told Lindgren that he did not recall discussing this survey project with any colleagues at the University of Chicago.

As for the data itself, Dr. Lott apparently told both Lindgren and Duncan that he cannot produce the data because it was lost in a computer crash in 1997. He apparently explained at least once that survey data was entered directly into students’ computers, and then electronically transferred to his computer during the survey process, but apparently no student retained copies of the data allowing him to reconstruct the survey following his computer crash. He has also apparently suggested that some handwritten data collection may have occurred, but that any handwritten survey results must have been inadvertently discarded when he moved out of his office at Yale University.

Dr. Lott is an exceptionally bright man who has conducted some of the most important research to date on criminological issues related to gun control. If he did indeed conduct the 1997 survey — as I hope he did — he should proactively work with others to find at least one of the graduate students who assisted him, obtain his old bank records and their old telephone records. In short, he should take the time right now to set this controversy at rest.

If Dr. Lott’s accusers are correct, immediate action is even more important. In very little time this issue will find its way into the mainstream media. If Dr. Lott has lied to his colleagues he must now tell the truth, difficult as that might be. The alternative will surely transform a journalistic footnote into a media circus.

UPDATE: Tim Lambert has given me permission to post the following clarifications of his report on this issue, which I quote:

***
“You wrote: ‘During this same period, other commentators were also
citing a 98% figure.’ Actually, all of those examples predate Lott’s
use of the figure, so we know that they weren’t repeating Lott’s
figure.
You wrote: ‘He has also apparently suggested that some handwritten data
collection may have occurred, but that any handwritten survey results
must have been inadvertently discarded when he moved out of his office
at Yale University.’
Lindgren just wrote to me [Lambert] and asked me to correct that part of his
report. It now reads ‘He reported that he might have tossed out tally
sheets or other evidence of the 1997 study during one of his several
moves over the years.’”
***
Thanks, Tim.

UPDATE II: Wow, this story has now been picked up by Instapundit! Glenn Reynolds rounds up some links, including my original post on this issue, and promises future updates. I feel like I just shook hands with Tiger Woods or something…

UPDATE III: For important follow-up information regarding this story, including new evidence that Dr. Lott did indeed conduct the 1997 story, please see Lindgren Exonerates Lott!